還是謊言治國

既然, 經濟學人已經把台灣排在全球55工業國的最後一名, 政府還要把困境怪在大環境上, 實在是說不過去, 搞到最後一名, 連我5歲兒子去當總統也一樣了, 反正也不會有比最後一名更差的名次了

而, 奶精院長既然都說了, 沒有擴大內虛, 發消費券, 成長率不會是-2.97%, 而是-5.74%, 那不是已經自婊當初用5.08%編的預算嗎? 而且從過去連續說謊的習性, 我個人也不相信-2.97%是實說, 這又讓我想起另一件事

主計處公佈2008 Q4 -8.36%成長率, 預估今年-2.97%的成長率, 被說成"終於說了實話", 意思就是, 過去9個月的沒有說實話, 這一句應該很清楚地說明了政府的治國方針, 難怪, 一直強調清廉, 就是不敢強調誠實

以下附經濟學人的英文文章, 請自閱, 順便在此留個記號

Mirror, mirror on the wall
By The Economist print editionFrom The Economist

WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.
Taiwan is one of the world's most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan's competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.
Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island's electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan's mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.
Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.
Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island's moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan's GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan's history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.
To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.
In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan's frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.